ELI5: Why did Iraq invade and annex Kuwait in 1990? How could they have not anticipated that much stronger countries allied to Kuwait would intervene and drive them out?

Iraq invaded Kuwait for financial reasons mostly. Kuwait supported Iraq during the war with Iran. After the war Iraq was in debt to Kuwait for something like $15 billion. Kuwait refused to debt relief. Kuwait was over prducing oil when there was already a glut. This drives the price of oil down which is bad for Iraq because they are really far in debt not just to Kuwait but to many countries around the world to the tune of $60 billion. Also Iraq accused kuwait of slant drill across the border into Iraq and pumping oil from Iraqi oil fields.

Now, how does Iraq invade Kuwait and not expect retaliation from the U.S. and other? Iraq at the time was the most powerful military in the region and the U.S. and Russian had just wound down the cold war. Iraq calculated we wouldn’t be able to stomach another conflict with Vietnam and Afghanistan in our rearview mirror.

Another reason they thought the U.S. wouldn’t get involved was a matter of mixed signals from the U.S. ambassador. Statements such as “ we have no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts” and that the U.S. did not intend to “start an economic war against Iraq”. This was said while Iraqi forces were forming on the border with Kuwait. These statements and others, said and not said, was seen as a go ahead for invasion.

The U.S. didn’t think Iraq was really going to annex Kuwait. The U.S. believed it was just posturing by the Iraqis to put pressure on Kuwait for debt relief and lower oil prduction. I’ve heard that Saddam was surprised by the response from the U.S.

Explain Like I`m Five: good questions, best answers.